Is global recession coming to an end???

The global slump has reached its low point in the business cycle. Asia’s economies are looking rosier and brighter, buoyed by a spectacular rebound in China, where output grew at an annualised rate of some 16% between April and June. This is obvious good but the picture is still not clear. The boost from restocking will be temporary. And a big source of demand—government stimulus—is unsustainable. Across the globe governments have, rightly, stepped in to counter the economic slump. In America an increase of 12 percentage points in the budget deficit has cushioned the slump in private spending. Around 75% of China’s growth this year will be state-directed, either through public spending or officially induced lending. Governments can prop up economies temporarily, but rising budget deficits are not a route to sustainable growth. Eventually burgeoning debt will limit the room for fiscal manoeuvre. A solid global recovery demands healthy and balanced growth in private demand. Unfortunately, that still seems far off.

What natural and economic disasters have in common?

The title seems to be very interesting....isn't it?

The parallels between financial crises and natural disasters—such as earthquakes or forest fires—suggest that the economy, just like complex natural systems, is inherently unstable and prone to occasional huge failures that are very hard or impossible to foresee. Scientists and other proponents of this school of thinking are bringing new ideas grounded in complexity theory to economic forecasting, strategic planning, and risk management. This trend may have profound implications for policy makers, economists, and corporate strategists alike. Please read this article published recently in Mckinsey quarterly.